By Engr. Victor Ojimadu,
CG, Imo Reform Movement.
As an average Nigerian, the idea of APC’s “invincibility” in 2027 feels more like political theatre than reality.
Currently, the country is going through the worst economic crisis since independence so, if you ask most Nigerians on the street, traders in Alaba market, okada riders, civil servants who stretches one salary till the last week of the month — “APC winning in 2027” feels like what politicians in Abuja worry about, not something felt in day-to-day life of an ordinary Nigerian. Here, let me try to lay out both sides fairly.
The party’s vote share has been shrinking since 2015, and economic hardship plus opposition realignments suggest its dominance is far from guaranteed.
From Bahari’s erra, in 2015: Muhammadu Buhari (APC) won 15.42 million votes (56%).
In 2019, Buhari again, but slightly lower at 15.19 million votes (54%).
Then 2023, Bola Ahmed Tinubu secured only 8.8 million votes (37%) in what most Nigerians saw as non deserving victory, a sharp drop of 6.4 million compared to 2019. This decline shows APC’s grip on power is weakening, despite incumbency advantages.
But anyway. to an ordinary Nigerian, The APC does look structurally dominant. In the party’s direct primary, 2026, Tinubu polled 10.99 million votes showing strong internal control.
Measuring the length of the wing, APC controls 31 governors nationwide, including all South-South states and most of the North, giving it deep institutional reach.
Yes, it controls the centre, most of the governors, and the machinery of incumbency, which in Nigeria matters enormously, since it is presumed the governors mobilize voters, controlling local party structures, and sometimes directing and influencing results.
Among all of these, APC’s dominance is inflated by incumbency and state resources, not genuine popularity.
Tinubu’s dominance is manufactured, not earned, built on defections induced by “resource access” and fear of persecution rather than genuine popularity, and propped up by an electoral umpire Nigerians don’t trust. At the Ibadan summit, opposition leaders openly accused INEC’s chairman of bias toward the ruling party and demanded he step aside from conducting the 2027 polls, while warning against Nigeria drifting into a “one-party state,” with Governor Makinde cautioning that “democracy without opposition is not democracy, it is a slow drift toward a one-party state”, which I call ”dictatorship”. They also point to real economic pain such as inflation, high costs of fuel, and insecurity as reasons the government’s popularity is softer than it looks on paper.
So, APC invincibility is an illusion. Tinubu’s 2023 victory was possible largely because PDP and Labour Party split opposition votes. Combined, Atiku and Obi had over 13 million votes, more than APC’s tally.
And today, the economic hardship, rising inflation, unemployment, and fuel subsidy removal have eroded APC’s goodwill among ordinary Nigerians.
This calls for a “Third Force” party to challenge APC dominance, especially as PDP remains divided.
While APC remains Nigeria’s most structurally dominant party, its internal divisions especially over consensus primaries and regional rivalries could erode unity and voter mobilization. Tensions like this could weaken the party’s cohesion despite its strong national structures.
Such cracks suggest APC taken the centre stage in 2027 is far from assured.
Opposition strategies for 2027 are shaping up around unity, grassroots mobilization, and leveraging economic discontent but whether they succeed depends on overcoming fragmentation and building a credible alternative to APC.
The emergence of NDC has sent chills over APC and Tinubu.
Talks of a “mega coalition” or “Third Force” are gaining traction, aiming to merge opposition blocs into one formidable front. Labour Party’s success in urban centres showed the power of youth and social media mobilization.
Opposition parties are now focusing on rural outreach, where APC’s structures remain dominant.
For economic discontent; rising inflation, subsidy removal, and unemployment have created fertile ground for opposition campaigns.
For Nigerians “APC has failed”.
NDC, Obidients and Village Boys Movement are exploring joint platforms and with smaller parties like NNPP.
2027 will be between APC and Nigerian youths. Youth mobilization will be a critical battleground in 2027. If opposition parties can harness grassroots energy and unify youth demands into a coherent platform, they could erode APC’s dominance.
Opposition youth mobilization for 2027 is shaping up as a decisive factor. Nigerian youths, who make up over 60% of the population, are demanding greater inclusion, pushing grassroots movements like the “Obidients” and “Village Boys” campaign being on the side of Mr. Peter Obi
Youth mobilization in 2027 will likely split into two powerful but contrasting streams: social media activism and grassroots village mobilization. So far, the Village Boys Movement and the Obidients are the leading youth movement in the country with huge presence in every community, urban and rural and they dominate the social media space unlike the City Boy branding.
Conclusion
My honest read, as I’d put it to a friend over suya: APC’s strength right now is real but partly borrowed built on incumbency, defections, and a fractured opposition rather than deep popular love. Whether that’s “illusion” or just smart politics depends on whether the opposition can actually get its house in order before January 2027.
For an average Nigerian, APC’s “invincibility” looks more like a myth than reality. The 2027 election will hinge on whether opposition parties can unite and whether Nigerians’ frustrations with economic hardship outweigh APC’s structural dominance.
For the average Nigerian youth, the real power lies in combining both strategies: using social media to energize and inform, while grassroots mobilization ensures those voices translate into ballots. If opposition parties can bridge this gap, youth mobilization could be the game-changer in 2027.
